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Video Universe Growing?

A new report from BernsteinResearch includes some interesting stats from Massachusetts, where Verizon is delivering its FiOS video service in several communities.

We draw two conclusions from the [Massachusetts Department of Telecommunications and Cable] data. First, the data broadly confirms the obvious; Verizon's FiOS is, as expected, gaining traction and share. Second, the results belie the consensus expectation that Verizon's gains will inevitably mean steep losses for cable incumbents.

Thre report notes that Verizon’s 2007 gain in the Massachusetts communities was far larger than Comcast’s losses.

This counter-intuitive observation reflects the manner in which cable subscriber growth has remained essentially flat even while new entrants (the DBS providers) have, over the last fifteen years, grown to 33M subscribers: industry growth and, to a lesser extent, loss of share by smaller providers.… The result runs contrary to expectations about TelCo entry into the TV market, but are consistent with broader themes of limited TelCo overlap: Verizon FiOS will be available to just 16 to 17% of Comcast subscribers by the time Verizon completes construction of the FiOS network in 2010/2011; and continued (even modest) industry growth. The net effect on the cable industry is a loss of share – but a relatively steady subscriber count over the period.

Posted on February 6, 2008 09:11 AM | Comments (0)

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