A Convergence Consulting analyst has gotten press recently speculating that cable companies will be forced to eventually disable digital video recorders’ fast-forward capability. Brahm Eiley of Toronto-based Convergence has issued two recent reports predicting such a fate for the FF button, and, ultimately, a bleak future for the DVR. Eiley’s conclusion is that DVR-enabled fast forwarding is killing the advertising model and that, to protect the $71 billion television advertising revenue stream, service providers will have to prevent customers from speeding through commercials.

At Cox, we certainly have no plans to stop customers from fast forwarding through DVR-ed content, a favored feature of these amazing devices. Indeed, we shudder to imagine the likely consumer outcry. With DVRs, it’s unrealistic to think we can or should eliminate such a valued feature as FF now, after paying customers have embraced it and will likely protect it vociferously. It simply wouldn’t be prudent for us to take away this feature, especially when customers could likely get it from our competitors.

But while we disagree with the conclusion, we admit parts of Eiley’s argument are sound.

DVRs have certainly altered the world of advertising. Instead of DVR FF extinction, though, we predict a different outcome. More and more premium content is moving to an On-Demand format. (For instance, popular content like networks’ primetime shows.) In many cases, this premium content will only be offered free to the customer if it contains commercials through which the customer cannot fast forward. As there are some distinct differences between DVRs and On Demand, it’s likely that customers may not resent, or at least will put up with, commercials in certain On Demand content. With DVRs, viewers generally have to plan ahead. You program it ahead of time to record an episode or a season’s worth of episodes. With On Demand, you can be a bit more spontaneous, and it’s reasonable that such spontaneity can exact a price—in this case, the cost of watching commercials. As consumers, we can likely appreciate that if we want to watch yesterday’s new episode of The Office for free via On Demand, we’ll be shown a few 30 second spots.

For advertisers, the DVR reality and rapid technological advancements will necessitate creation of advertising that viewers don’t want to miss, or that is so attention-grabbing it eliminates the desire to fast forward. The realization of such compelling advertising probably requires some level of consumer targeting (e.g., by demographic, aggregate viewing statistics, etc.). Bottom line – if the advertising is compelling, customers will watch it.

Let’s not forget that fast forwarding through ads is not a passive consumer activity, nor is leaving the room to get a soda, etc. during commercials appearing on live TV. The customer shouldn’t have to lose useful functionality, such as DVR FF, simply due to an inability of the media industry to provide relevant, compelling advertising and/or a better way for customers to access desired programming (e.g., via On Demand).

Lisa Pickelsimer is Cox Communications' Director of Video Product Development